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This article reports on Ph.D. production and graduate enrollments among computer science (CS) departments in the United States. It draws on data collected by CRA’s Taulbee Survey of doctorate-granting departments.

In the early- and mid-1990s, the number of doctorates granted annually by US CS departments peaked at between 1,000 and 1,100. From the mid-1990s until a few years ago, annual doctorate production hovered at around 800 (Figure 1). At the same time, however, the number of new students entering doctorate programs increased rapidly-- their number nearly tripled between 1995 and 2002 (Figure 2). In turn, this led to a near 90% increase in enrollment between 1995 and 2005. The result has been dramatic: doctorate production doubled between 2003 and 2007, to over 1,500.

What can be expected in the next few years? There are signs that the surge in degree production is close to peaking and that the number of doctorates granted will decline somewhat. The number of new students entering doctorate programs has declined in each of the past four years, and is now 17% lower than it was at its peak 2002. Likewise, total enrollments in doctorate programs have leveled off since 2004, and the number of students passing qualifying exams dropped nearly 30% between 2005 and 2007. Overall, it is too soon to tell if degree production will edge back to levels seen in the mid-1990s or if a new, higher level of production will become the norm.

[Last updated June 24, 2008]